Trading

TradeTheNews.com European Morning Update: European bond auctions share in return of risk appetite

European Morning Update: European bond auctions share in return of risk appetite
<b>***Economic Data***</b>
- (SZ) Swiss Jun CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.9%e
- (SZ) Swiss National Bank (SNB) June Currency Reserves M/M: CHF225.8B v CHF232.4B prior
- (AS) Austria Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.9% prior
- (DE) Denmark May Industrial Production M/M: 4.4% v -0.8% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: 13.4% v -11.2% prior
- (UK) Jun New Car Registration Y/Y: 10.8% v 13.5% prior

<b>Fixed Income:</b>
<b>- (SA) South Africa Bond auction</b>
- Sold ZAR1.3B in R204 bonds; avg yield 8.615%; bid-to-cover ratio 2.22x
- Sold ZAR800M in R209 bonds; avg yield 8.870%; bid-to-cover ratio 2.05x
<b>- (AS) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) Bond auction results; Sold total &#8364;1.32B in 5-year and 10-year tranches</b>
- Sold &#8364;770M in 3.9% 2020 RAGBs; avg yield 3.008%; bid-to-cover 2.8x
- Sold &#8364;550M in 3.5% 2015 RAGBs; avg yield 1.912%; bid-to-cover 3.3x
<b>- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency: Sells HUF45B in 3-month Bills; avg yield 5.29% v 5.24% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.0x prior
- (UK) DMO sold &#163;3.25B in 3.75% 2020 Gilts; avg yield 3.467%; Bid-to-cover: 2.45x v 1.86 prior</b>

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
<b>- European equities</b> Stoxx Europe 600 Index snaped its longest losing streak in a year as valuation opportunities provided the catalyst for a rally today. As of 5:45 Euro Stoxx 50 Index +2.4% at 2,568 ; DAX Index +1.8% at 5,920; CAC-40 Index 2.5% at 3,416 and FTSE 100 Index 2.0% at 4,919

<b>Consumer Discretionary</b>
- Brown N Group [BWNG.UK]: 18 weeks ended July 3 total group Rev +1.1% y/y, like-for-like sales 0.1%
- Easy Jet [EZJ.UK]: Reports Jun Load factor 87.2% v 86.3% y/y
- Party Gaming [PRTY.UK] Provides update: Q2 Revenue seen 2% lower q/q; Overall trading in-line with the Board's expectations despite the adverse impact of the World Cup being greater than expected on poker.
- Persimmon [PSN.UK]: Reports H1 Rev &#163;785M, up 26% y/y; Sales match forecast since UK budget; Still cautious about investment decisions, until mortgage availability improves further.
- Punch Taverns [PUB.UK] Provides Interim Management Statement; Profits remain under pressure as lower drinks margin coupled with reduced rental income from returned pubs impacts profit.

<b>Industrials</b>
- Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK]: Provides trading update: Results in line with expectations
- Porsche [PAH3.GE] VW considering management reshuffle; VW CEO Winterkorn may install Matthias Muller as Porsche CEO - FT
- TUI AG [TUI1.GE]: Raises forecast for container shipping, citing strengthening in positive trends for transport volumes and freight rates

<b>Financials</b>
- Societe Generale [GLE.FR] Head of investment banking unit Peretie: Not concerned about &#8364;8B sales target in normalized market, but Q2 not normalized; Q2 volumes were "soft"

<b>Technology</b>
Nokia [NOK]: Renesas Electronics to acquire Nokia's wireless modem business for apprx $200M

<b>Energy</b>
- Tullow Oil [TLW.UK]: Guides H1 Rev $495M v $438M y/y (increase in revenue is principally due to the increase in realised commodity prices during the year)
- SMA Solar [S92.GE]: Raises forecast for FY10 Rev to &#8364;1.5-1.8B (guided &#8364;1.1-1.3B on May 14th)
- Abertis [ABE.SP]: Co.'s two largest shareholders studying possible &#8364;25B leverage buyout with CVC - FT

<b>- Speakers:</b>
- (FR) France Budget Min Baroin: 2011 deficit target of 6% not negotiable
- (CH) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): Confident of long-term return on currency reserves; to keep close eye on investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
-(FR) France Fin Min Lagarde could lower 2011 growth forecasts next month -Le Figaro
- (KS) South Korea Central Bank: Greek sovereign default not imminent but is inevitable
- (SZ) Swiss National Bank (SNB) June Currency Reserves m/m: CHF225.8B v CHF232.4B prior
- ECB's Noyer: Global imbalances have adjusted in the wake of the crisis, most cyclical; Imbalances continue to remain an issue
- (SP) Fitch: Large Spanish banks look "pretty strong"
- (SP) Spain PM Zapatero: Does not intend to reshuffle cabinet
- OPEC: 2009 Petroleum Export Revenues: $575B, down 43% y/y - Annual Statistical Bulletin

<b>- Currencies/Fixed Income:</b> The pendulum swung back towards risk in the session with speculative money to move back into higher risk strategies resulting in a softer USD and JPY against the major European and commodity pairs. The Shanghai Composite Index rallied from 15-month lows. The RBA left interest rates unchanged but buoyed BRIC related hope when it commented that consumer spending and business investment were set to expand. Softer Swiss CPI data prompted a weak CHF currency in the early part of the European morning and concerns that the SNB might strike back in the EUR/CHF cross. The SNB's June currency reserves confirmed speculation that the central bank has stepped aside for now in seeking to weaken its CHF currency. The Euro just off its best levels ahead of the NY morning. EUR/USD retested its post US payroll highs of 1.2610 before consolidating; EUR/CHF moving towards 1.34 neighborhood and EUR/JPY trying to test the 111 handle. Commodity currencies firmer with AUD/USD approaching 0.85 and USD/CAD hovering around the 1.06 after failing to break above the 1.0670 pivot point over the holiday period. NYMEX Aug crude futures at electronic session highs and approaching the $73/contract (higher by 1%). USD/JPY unable to sustain a break back above the pivotal 88.00/30 level. The NY morning will focus on the ECB 1-week Deposit operation and the results of Spain's 10-year syndicate bond auction.

<b>- Geo-Political:</b> The UK's Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) Chairman Sir Alan Budd announced his intentions to resign. According to media sources, the Treasury Department has no replacement. ***The UK Communications Workers Union has canceled strike ballot following legal challenges from BT Group. ***India's Financial Express reported warnings on "acute" coal shortage across 32 power stations. It portends "massive power cuts" in the country over the next 15 days, and citing Central Electricity Authority, there are 17 thermal power stations have supply for less than 7 days and 15 have supply for only 4 days. ***Swedish Prime Minister Reinfeldt stated he has no plans to raise taxes in 2011 and thinks that money should be spent in the welfare sector. ***According to Ukraine's Deputy Central Bank Governor Pasichnyuk, approximately 61 of Ukraine's banks need about UAH40B ($5.1B) in additional capital this year; UAH30B need to come in cash and UAH10B in reassessment of assets.

<b>***In the papers**</b>*
- FT comments on signs of recovery in the Spanish, Greek and Portuguese bond markets; Citing several fund managers expressing interest in Spain sovereign debt, and those who are staying away from Spain/Greece buying into Italian govt debt.
- According to research from CreditSights, Spain banks may be concealing mortgage losses by removing non-performing mortgages from securitized transactions
London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard address concerns about the EU's bank stress tests; According to RBS and other UK firms, the stress tests may be useless and further hurt confidence if the tests fail to cover the risk of large losses on sovereign defaults by Greece and other Club Med states.
- (FR) France Budget Min Baroin: 2011 deficit target of 6% not negotiable - Les Echos; Reiterates that France's 2011 growth target is 'ambitious'.
- WSJ "Currency Trading" section anticipates more upside on the Euro; Says that the various forces, including easing concerns over the European banking system and sovereign debt issues, will continue to fuel the strength in the euro.

***Notes***
- Risk back on as valuations have become attractive
- Fed's Lacker: Current levels of consumer spending and business investment will be sufficient to sustain US economic recovery
- Fed's Fisher: US economy to grow more slowly in H2 than H1 of 2010; GDP likely to be "closer to low end" of 2-3% range

***Looking Ahead***
<b>- (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) 10-year Bonds via syndicate
- ECB 1-week Term Deposit Tender operation with &#8364;59B target (Gov't bond sterilization operation)</b>
- (RU) Russia Jun Official Reserve Assets: $459.0Be v $456.4B prior
- (PO) Portugal May Industrial Sales M/M: No est v -6.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.0% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Building Permits M/M: -2.0%e v 5.4% prior
<b>- 10:00 (US) Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.0e v 55.4 prior</b>

---

MrSwing Lite Swing Trading Picks 07062010 (source: Mr. Swing)

Some Potential Swing Trading Opportunities for today... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS and RSS Feed on Feedzilla.com

Economic Calendar With Volatility Expectations (source: About)

There are only a few news releases from the US this week, but several news releases from Europe and Asia. There are two high volatility news releases from the US, ten high volatility news releases from Europe, and seven high volatility news releases from A... (source: About) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com

Going on Holiday is Risky (source: About)

According to popular opinion, the warnings that are often visible on brokerage web sites, and agencies like the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), trading (and especially day trading) is an extremely risky activity, that should only be attempted ... (source: About) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS and RSS Feed on Feedzilla.com

Not All Targets Are Created Equal (source: About)

Targets are the prices at which part of a trade (i.e. some contracts, shares, or forex lots) or all of a trade (i.e. all of the contracts, shares, or forex lots) will be exited. There are two types of targets that can be used to exit a trade, namely fixed... (source: About) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com

If You Need Advice … (source: About)

I heard something recently that was originally related to a completely different field (i.e. not trading), but that could equally be applied to trading, and that is "If you need advice, then you are not prepared". In many fields, needing advice is perfect... (source: About) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com

Daily Loss Limits (source: About)

I recently discussed one of the mistakes that new traders often make, namely daily profit goals, and a related mistake that new traders also make is to have a daily loss limit. A daily loss limit is the maximum amount that a trader will accept losing in a... (source: About) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS and RSS Feed on Feedzilla.com

The ”I Can’t Wait Any Longer” Trade (source: About)

The "I can't wait any longer" trade is a trade that is made earlier than expected, and usually at a less favourable price (e.g. a short trade on the EUR futures market being made at 1.2475 instead of 1.2500 as originally intended). For new traders, the mo... (source: About) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS and RSS Feed on Feedzilla.com

Dems Control House: From 62 to 46 in 46 Days (source: Mr. Swing)

The Intrade odds for the Democrats to maintain control of the House of Representatives after the November elections... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com

A Specter is Haunting America (source: Mr. Swing)

...The specter of fiscal mindlessness Im just back from two weeks in Europe... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: RBA stands pat at 4.50% but AUD outperforms on inflation bias; Aussie trade surplus hits 14-month high

Asian Market Update: RBA stands pat at 4.50% but AUD outperforms on inflation bias; Aussie trade surplus hits 14-month high
As of 12:30amET:
Nikkei225 +0.7% 9,325; fell below 9,100 in early trade
S&P/ASX +0.9%
Kospi +0.2%
Taiex +1.2%
Shanghai Composite -+1.8% at 2,405
US S&P Futures +0.2% at 1,016; off session lows below 1,0-5
Spot Gold narrow around $1,209/oz
Crude -0.4% at $71.89/brl

***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 NZIER BUSINESS OPINION SURVEY: 18 V 22 PRIOR (1-yr low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY TRADE BALANCE: A$1.6B V A$500ME (second consecutive monthly surplus, highest level since Mar 2009)
- (PH) Philippines JUN CPI m/m: 0.2% v 0.4%e; y/y: 3.9% v 4.3%e (y/y is a 7 month low)

***Top headlines***
<b>RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.50% as expected:</b>
<b>- Sees policy setting "appropriate"; Signs of growth in China starting to moderate to more sustainable levels</b>
- growth likely to be about trend.
- Consumption spending recording modest increase, households somewhat cautious
<b>- Housing prices rising slower than start of year.</b>
<b>- CPI increase likely to be "a little above 3%" in near term;</b> Temporary tobacco tax, utility price increases will add to inflation.
- Underlying inflation to be in upper half of target zone over the next year.
- AUD/USD Rises above $0.84 after RBA decision suggesting rate policy is appropriate, inflation to remain elevated; Comments on inflation downgrading fixed-income markets' small probability of a rate cut in months to come to nil.

<b>China Protectionism allegations:</b>
- (CH) China steel-industry association sees Friday letter by 50 members of US Congressional Steel Caucus to investigate China's Anshan Iron JV plans in US as protectionism

<b>Strong Australia Trade data:</b>
- Exports m/m: +6% v +11% prior
- Imports m/m: +4% v flat prior
- Exports to China m/m: A$4.30B v A$4.61B prior
- Coal exports m/m: A$3.53B v A$3.35B prior
- Iron ore exports m/m: A$3.71B v A$3.75B prior

***Forex***
- (CH) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): keeping close eye on investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
<b>- PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.7790 v 6.7758 prior close</b>


***Financials***
<b>- Harvard University Professor Rogoff: Expects a "collapse" in China property market, translating into weakness in financials</b>
- China govt to consider ending sovereign weath fund CIC's status as a bank holding company, stripping the fund of bank holdings, to avoid regulatory oversight upon investment in the US - FT


***Consumer Discretionary/Staples***
- Aeon: May report Q1 Op profit of &#165;22B v &#165;8.7B y/y, Rev &#165;1.2T v &#165;1.1T y/y - Japanese press


***Industrials/Materials***
<b>- MacArthur Coal: Raises profit and sales guidance for 2010; Sees Net A$115M-A$125M (guided A$103-113M on May 4th)</b>
- Boral: Planning to raise A$490M (about 17% of market cap)
- Toyota: To update safety policies in the wake of recent recalls; Prius ranks 1st among domestic car sales for 13th month in a row; May recall about 5.8K Lexus and

Crown vehicles in China due to an engine malfunction - Japanese press
- RTP: Iron ore chief Walsh: Demand for iron ore remains strong, will continue growing and remain strong for "some time"; BHP joint venture is still being considered by regulators
- Marubeni: Partnering with Endesa SA to make rapid chargers for electric vehicles
- China's Baosteel: Demand from automakers in China is declining

***Technology***
<b>- Samsung: Raises 2010 flat-panel TV sales target by 28% to 50M from 39M units, cites higher demand</b>
- Casio Computer: To spend as much as &#165;5B in share buybacks


***Telecom/utilities***
- SK Telecom: In talks to provide the iPhone and iPad; this deal would break the exclusive agreement Apple has with KT Corp since 2009 -WSJ


***Geopolitical/Speakers***
- Fed's Lacker: Current levels of consumer spending and business investment will be sufficient to sustain US economic recovery
- Fed's Fisher: US economy to grow more slowly in H2 than H1 of 2010; GDP likely to be "closer to low end" of 2-3% range - Japanese press interview
- Japanese Strategy Minister Arai: Comments that markets are not reacting strongly to signs of US economic recovery
- South Korea Finance Ministry: Denies reports about swap agreement with China
- South Korea Ministry of Knowledge: Energy consumption to rise about 7% on higher demand from improving economic growth and unseasonable weather
- South Korea Fin Min Yoon not likely to be affected by cabinet reshuffle -Korean press
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco: Inflation data offers central bank flexibility at next review on interest rates

---

At the BEGINNING of a big market decline My next Worden webinar (source: Mr. Swing)

At lunch on Friday I told my friend that I was moving 60 of my pension holdings from stock mutual funds to money market funds... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS and RSS Feed on Feedzilla.com

Video Analysis of U.S. Stock Indexes and a FollowUp on RIMM (source: Mr. Swing)

These were rather quickly prepared video on SPX, INDU,COMPQ, RUT and RIMM. If you have questions, leave a comment in blog or send an email to buffalotrader100gmail.com. I will do all I can to improve the quality of these videos as time moves forward. Still... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com

U.S. Motor Vehicle Export Milestones (source: Mr. Swing)

1. General Motors firsthalf of the year sales in China, the worlds biggest auto market, exceeded sales in its home U.S. market for the first time... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS and RSS Feed on Feedzilla.com

U.S. Motor Vehicle Export Milestones (source: Mr. Swing)

1. General Motors firsthalf of the year sales in China, the worlds biggest auto market, exceeded sales in its home U.S. market for the first time... (source: Mr. Swing) - Share on Twitter - Share on Facebook - RSS feeds and Widgets on Feedzilla.com